MS Virus Growth Rate Update 3-22-2020: Basic Projection Model

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Before reading this please do a quick self-check. If you haven’t had a break in a while please take a break. This stuff can take a toll on the mind. There are some more photos to ease the mind here if you like.

Today’s update from the MSDH saw no significant change in the growth trajectory. The first plot below shows raw data from MSDH reports in orange. Where the orange plot ends is today. The basic projection model starts on the silver plot. The basic model error for today is 8%, which is to be expected for the limited availability of raw data.

An exponential model for estimating surge and timing is shown in the second chart. It is plotted in yellow and uses a scaling factor of 50 and a reduced transmission rate (compared to that of the raw data) based on data obtained from a recently published study of Chinese infector-infectee pairs. The study examines the basic reproduction number and serial interval (time between onset of symptoms of infector and onset of symptoms of infectee). The scaled projection model shown here is very loosely based on this data, as many simplifying assumptions must be made. The result is a conservative estimate of surge timing.

Please note that this is in no way a robust mathematical model. Local data to support such a model simply is not yet available. So this is a rough estimate. The value of it is that it shows how the largest surge of cases happens much faster than the projection based on the raw data, which is simply the number of positive tests.

The best interpretation of the exponential model (yellow plot) is not of actual numbers of infections but of its shape and timing. The shape indicates a fast surge. The timing indicates a surge much sooner than the raw data projection.

Positive COVID-19 Test Results (orange) with raw data projection model (silver)

Raw data + projection (orange/ silver) with exponential model (yellow) estimate of actual cases overlaid

The exponential model shown here makes no claims of accuracy of any kind and must not be reported as accurate. An accurate model of estimates is not possible at this time. Please direct any corrections, questions, or new and better data to info@jjj-engineering.com

Please stay inside and take care of yourselves. I’ve posted some more photos on the photography page.

MS Virus Growth Rate Update with Projection 3-21-2020

MS reported cases surged again overnight to 140.

There is enough data to make a projection on the virus transmission in MS. Using the average rate of growth for the past 3 days (1.61x per day avg), if the daily rate of transmission continues, then by March 26, 2020 MS will have 1500 reported cases. Due to a lag in testing availability and a lag in test result reporting, the actual number of positive cases is known to be higher than what is seen in this data.

This is difficult for everybody. Please stay safe and follow CDC guidelines. And be encouraged: China is recovering.

See the description below the chart.

The orange line represents the number of reported positive cases in Mississippi, tracked by day. Today (3-21) is where the orange line ends. The silver line represents a projection over the next 5 days, based on the computed average rate of transmission over the last 3 days, which is a growth rate of 161% every day, or a multiplicative factor of 1.61 times. So take today’s number of cases (140), multiply that by 1.61 and the result is 225 cases projected for tomorrow. The projection model will be adjusted each day, adjusting model complexity as needed.

This dataset is easily verified and qualified. No restrictions are imposed on sharing. Contact info@jjj-engineering.com with any questions or corrections.

MS Virus Growth Rate Update 3-20

According to data published by the Mississippi Dept of Health, the COVID-19 transmission rate shows continued growth in an exponential manner. It is unlikely to see a slowed rate of transmission for a couple of weeks due to the lag in reporting times for positive tests, the high efficiency of virus transmission, and the limited mitigation on the spread imposed by voluntary social distancing. But it will come. And it will show in the data. We will get this orange line to flatten. And this virus will leave as quickly as it came. Keep telling your neighbors to practice social distancing, wash hands, and just stay put.

Virus Growth Rate: Mississippi vs Avg vs DuPage, IL Outbreak

The purpose of the dataset is to help local people make better decisions. Please use and share this data without any credit required nor any restriction imposed. There is also nothing for sale on this site. Stay safe friends.

The following chart tracks the raw numbers of positive COVID-19 tests to show the rate of growth in various population conditions. Time (t) shown in days starts with the first known case in Mississippi. The orange line shows the increase in positive tests since then. This data represents the conditions in Mississippi at large and is compared to 2 other conditions: the average growth rate seen in large unmitigated populations (blue, about a doubling every 3 days) and the recent outbreak in a long-term care facility in DuPage, IL populated with high risk patients.

Links to data sources are posted below.

As of today, this data shows that the rate of virus spread in Mississippi is not far behind that of an extremely high risk population of elderly people and suggests that the virus is not anywhere close to well controlled yet in Mississippi.

These numbers are being collected from sources daily and pulled into a spreadsheet, which is being updated as soon as new numbers are published. Every attempt at accuracy is being made.

Here are links to data sources:

Mississippi Dept of Health COVID-19 Webpage, updated daily

  • The above site is the primary source for the Mississippi data set

Worldometer COVID-19 Outbreak Page

  • The above site is the primary source for the Average Growth Rate dataset

WGN News Chicago: Spike in Coronavirus Cases

  • The above site is the primary source for the DuPage dataset

The datasets are being updated as time permits, at least daily. As more data about local numbers emerges, it will be tracked and posted.

Recent Articles and Videos from Reliable Sources: Experts

This is a make-shift repository of forthcoming information about the mathematical and biological characteristics of the COVID-19 virus. This info is a good data source that can be used to make well-informed decisions.

The data has shown that we must work together to stop the spread of the virus. We must do this by reducing our geographical movements for a while. This is to protect the vulnerable among us. If we do not, our hospitals will be over-run with severe cases, which represent a very small percentage of total cases. The total cost of this pandemic including human lives, financial burden, and prolonged suffering will be much greater if we do not stop moving around and stay put.

It is in the best interest of all the world (not just America) to just stay put for a while and let the virus slow down. The vast majority of cases will be just fine. But all who are exposed will be carriers and will need to stay inside at least 2 weeks.

The following links are articles and videos published recently, as well as current guidelines for the right way to do this. This is not a government conspiracy, it is a medical emergency.

Use this information to better understand what is happening, to make good decisions, to inform your friends and neighbors, and to be encouraged. This will end. It will be less painful if we stop moving around. Please feel free to browse the Photography page on this site. I hope you will find some comfort in these images. I will add more as I have time. I will try to update the structure of this page also, as time permits.

Be safe friends, be well, Godspeed. Here are the links:

Article by Dr. Maurizio Cecconi, chief ICU expert, Lombardy, Italy

Video Interview with Dr. Cecconi. He answers many key questions.

The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand About the Pandemic

A Video Message from Italian Citizens on the Best Approach

CDC Specific Guidelines for Various Groups and Situations

CDC 2-page Flyer that can be Easily Posted

Why You Must Act Now- Politicians, Community Leaders and Business Leaders: What Should You Do and When?