MS reported cases surged again overnight to 140.
There is enough data to make a projection on the virus transmission in MS. Using the average rate of growth for the past 3 days (1.61x per day avg), if the daily rate of transmission continues, then by March 26, 2020 MS will have 1500 reported cases. Due to a lag in testing availability and a lag in test result reporting, the actual number of positive cases is known to be higher than what is seen in this data.
This is difficult for everybody. Please stay safe and follow CDC guidelines. And be encouraged: China is recovering.
See the description below the chart.
The orange line represents the number of reported positive cases in Mississippi, tracked by day. Today (3-21) is where the orange line ends. The silver line represents a projection over the next 5 days, based on the computed average rate of transmission over the last 3 days, which is a growth rate of 161% every day, or a multiplicative factor of 1.61 times. So take today’s number of cases (140), multiply that by 1.61 and the result is 225 cases projected for tomorrow. The projection model will be adjusted each day, adjusting model complexity as needed.
This dataset is easily verified and qualified. No restrictions are imposed on sharing. Contact info@jjj-engineering.com with any questions or corrections.